Core PCE inflation ticked upwards in February and March

The April 30th PCE report ran through March 2025, before Liberation day tariffs were announced on April 2nd. The headline PCE price index rose 2.3% relative to a year ago, down from 2.7% the previous month.
Underlying price pressures are better captured by stripping out food and energy: this is reflected in the core PCE metric. It rose by 2.6% relative to a year ago. The six month measure favored by this blog rose by 3.0%, down slightly from 3.1% from the previous month and well above the Fed’s target of 2.0%. There’s a 75% chance that inflation is rising, as measured by centered 1 year inflation.