Mild Core PCE inflation report for April 2025

Core PCE inflation flatlined in April. The six month lag shows 2.6% inflation, with the 3 and 12 month clocking in at a virtually identical 2.7% and 2.5%. Probability of rising inflation is 60%, close to a 50-50 coin toss. There is little or no obvious evidence of the on and off trade war: monthly goods prices declined in both March and April.