August 2, 2025
Job numbers came in surprisingly low, previous monthly figures were revised downwards, and the unemployment rate ticked up slightly. President Trump fired the head of the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS); the stock market dropped 1.6%. A member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors resigned early. The odds of a Fed rate cut next September soared from 40% to 80%, properly I think. If you must forecast, forecast often.
It should surprise nobody that this website is a supporter of high quality, nonpartisan, and objective data collection. Just today I joined Friends of the BLS. I encourage my readers to do the same.
https://www.friendsofbls.org